Given the complex methodology involved, many institutions – particularly VERT providers – are carefully evaluating how these indicative numbers will impact their operations before releasing the figures.

Maragret Sheil, vice-chancellor of Queensland University of Technology, appeared on ABC News on the day the Australian government’s announcement on National Planning Level for 2025 was made.

Although Sheil appeared in her role as Universities Australia deputy chair, she chose to give details on QUT’s individual 2025 allocation for new international student commencements – which she said is around 10% less than the institution’s 2023 figure.

“It’s hard. It’s a complicated formula, but it’s for us about 10%,” explained Sheil, who said that a bigger concern is that the institution previously had plans to grow its international cohort.

“So we’ve invested in engineering, which is in huge demand internationally and [what] we are really strong at, and we started to form the partnerships and the arrangements to grow that because we’ve historically had a low percentage, so we are only around 15% international.

“It’s really impacted on our future growth, but also the investments that we are making in some of those areas, we’ll have to either scale back or do something differently.”

It is understood that VET providers, expected to be hit even harder than public institutions, will wait longer for details.

“Subject to passage and Royal Assent of the ESOS Bill, the department will write to providers again to provide international student allocations for 2025, and further information about the VET sector distribution methodology,” read a DEWR statement.

While some have suggested that TAFEs could benefit from the caps, given the government’s decision to align them with 2023 commencement levels, Timothy Gilbert, vice president international at Melbourne Polytechnic, explained to The PIE News why this isn’t true for all institutions.

“The government has previously indicated their aim was bringing international student commencements back to 2019 levels,” said Gilbert.

“For most Victorian TAFEs, applying 2019 student numbers for TAFE 2025 caps would have been far fairer and support the viability of international education in TAFE.

“By contrast, in 2023 our international student higher education commencements were less than half what they were in 2019,” he continued.

“The media has painted a picture that TAFE are fairing well out of the caps, getting around 100% of our 2023 numbers for 2025, but the reality is that using 2023 as the baseline is particularly harmful for TAFE. It restricts us to -50% of our pre-Covid levels.”

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the University of Sydney told The PIE it had received correspondence from the government and will now “carefully work through the detail to assess the likely impact on [its] core operations of education and research, and [its] community”.

“We’ll continue to work collaboratively with governments and the sector on managed growth of international higher education, one of Australia’s most valuable exports,” they continued.

A spokesperson for the University of Queensland said the government’s announcement “provides the clarity” it has been seeking for 2025.

“Over the coming days we will work through the detail and look forward to meeting with the department early next month to finalise our International Student Profile,” it added.

“The government’s proposed legislation will help maintain the quality and integrity of Australia’s international higher education sector, which is worth $48 billion to Australia’s economy.”

Meanwhile, the University of New South Wales continues to advocate against the caps, with a spokesperson saying the institution is “deeply disappointed” with the federal government’s proposed cuts to the 2025 international student numbers for Australian universities.

“We are concerned about the detrimental impact this will have on the experience of all students, domestic and international alike,” it said.

We are concerned about the detrimental impact this will have on the experience of all students, domestic and international alike

University of New South Wales spokesperson

“While it is pleasing that the government aims to correct the damage caused by the poor implementation of visa controls at the start of 2024, that can’t be the sole policy basis for deeper and more entrenched cuts. 

“The proposed cuts would significantly damage the economy, the world-class Australian higher education sector and Australia’s reputation, and would reduce domestic student opportunities as well as the diverse perspectives international students contribute.”