The potential introduction of a cap on international student numbers is a hot topic within the Australian international education section. The latest twist in the ESOS Amendment Bill – the legislation that would put limits on Australia‘s student enrolments next year – is an unexpected roadblock, as the Coalition moves to block it.

Among the many concerns the Bill raises, a key question centres on how caps will impact Australia’s reputation and appeal to international students if the legislation is approved by the Senate. As an Australian registered migration agent and former education agent, I have, however, observed another issue that could also pose risks to our appeal as a study destination and the sector in general.

Governments rarely acknowledge it, but the availability of legal visa pathways for international students has long been key to Australia’s appeal, cementing its position as a leading choice for students globally. Australia is not only an education destination; it is also a migration destination, and although this is not an overlooked conversation, the movement of international students here is deeply influenced by our migration policies. Instability within these policies, however, raises serious concerns.

The Temporary Graduate Visa (subclass 485) is a prime example. It provides international students an option to extend their stay and gain work experience after graduating, with unrestricted work rights for a period of 18 months to four years, depending on the qualification they complete. For those studying in “Designated Regional Areas” – anywhere outside Sydney, Melbourne, or Brisbane – it may be possible to obtain a second or even third Graduate Visa.

Initially introduced in 2008, the 485 Graduate Visa was first limited to graduates in high-demand occupations, aiming to retain skilled people educated under Australian standards and allow them to stay and work, which was effectively positive for our workforce and economy.

In 2011, a new stream was added to the visa: the Post-Study Work Rights Stream, expanding course eligibility to include higher education degrees regardless of their field. This move attracted a broader pool of international students, offering an appealing pathway for those in diverse disciplines beyond traditional high-demand fields. This expansion sent a strong signal: Australia valued international graduates not only for their academic contributions but for their potential in the workforce.

Mixed messages

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw this visa gain even more momentum when the government allowed graduates who had gotten stuck outside of our closed borders to apply for the 485 Graduate visa – a first for an exclusively onshore visa subclass. We also saw the implementation of a “Replacement Stream” for graduates who couldn’t utilise their 485 visas until the borders reopened.

In 2013, the Labor government went even further. It introduced a list of around 3,000 courses in fields critical to the country’s recovery, such as healthcare and technology, offering graduates of these programs additional years of stay on their 485 Graduate visas. These adjustments highlighted the government’s recognition of the importance of international students and graduates during a workforce crisis.

Sure, migration policies are bound to change, but sudden changes impact students who have invested considerable time and resources to study in Australia negatively.

But things started to shift by the end of 2023, when in December the government abruptly reversed these changes and removed the list of courses. By then the discourse about International Student numbers had also shifted and in July 2024 more restrictions to the 485 Graduate Visa were implemented, this time with the maximum age for visa applicants reduced from 50 to 35. This contributed to uncertainty among students about the Graduate Visa’s stability as a migration pathway.

While the July 2023 changes had been welcomed by students and agents as a sign of Australia’s commitment to retaining skilled talent, the abrupt reversals left many feeling disillusioned.

Such rapid shifts create frustration for students who come to Australia expecting post-study work and stay opportunities. Inconsistencies in policy cast doubt on Australia’s reliability as a long-term study option. Sure, migration policies are bound to change, but sudden changes impact students who have invested considerable time and resources to study in Australia negatively.

Avoiding the migration conversation

The role of the Graduate Visa as a legal migration pathway remains a sensitive topic, with the government reluctant to acknowledge that study-to-skilled migration is a reality and that many international students view the 485 visa as a gateway to more permanent options, such as employer sponsorship or skilled migration visas. When used strategically, the 485 visa can lead to these visas and if graduates find genuine employment and integrate seamlessly into the workforce, filling actual skill gaps, shouldn’t this be encouraged rather than obstructed?

Another quirk in this whole scenario is the fact that the 485 visa has coexisted with the Genuine Temporary Entrant (GTE) criterion, introduced in 2016 and recently replaced by the Genuine Student Test. This requirement mandates that students applying for visas prove they intend only to stay in Australia temporarily. Ironically, students expressing an interest in the 485 visa – a government-provided option – risked having their student visas refused. This contradiction has puzzled education agents and students, who feel pressured to understate their ambitions to stay in Australia post-graduation, even though pathways like the Graduate Visa exist.

The reluctance to discuss the 485 Graduate Visa (and similar visas) as a migration pathway creates mixed messages. Students are encouraged to study and contribute to the workforce yet discouraged from expressing long-term goals. This inconsistency places students in a precarious position, forcing them to navigate a system that seems contradictory.

The Impact on Australia’s appeal

The evolving policies around the 485 visa and reluctance to position it clearly as a migration option impact Australia’s attractiveness as a study destination, especially if competing countries, such as Canada and the UK, simplify their post-study work pathways.

By stabilising policies around the Graduate Visa and acknowledging its role in skilled migration, Australia could reaffirm its commitment to international students

Mixed messages impact the education sector, on top of all other challenges being experienced by the sector. Educational institutions and agents must constantly recalibrate their recruitment strategies to align with policy shifts. Institutions, heavily reliant on international enrolments, face additional complexity when attracting and retaining students in the midst of unstable post-study work options as the lack of a stable, predictable policy framework can deter students from choosing Australia.

The 485 visa embodies Australia’s dual role as both an education and migration destination. By stabilising policies around the Graduate Visa and acknowledging its role in skilled migration, Australia could reaffirm its commitment to international students and ensure it remains competitive. Stability and transparency in migration policy are essential, not only for workforce demands but also for Australia’s reputation in the global education landscape. Our current challenge is to balance the economic benefits of international students with the demands on infrastructure and services.