For a higher education policy wonk, this summer was a momentous occasion. As well as marking the start of a new political chapter following July’s UK general election, this August also saw me make my first ever trip down under to Australia.

Although I visited for purely personal reasons – to have a holiday, discover somewhere new, and take a break from work (honest!) – it wasn’t long before higher education started featuring prominently in my trip, despite me never intending to have a busman’s holiday.

First, there were stories and debates beamed into my hotel room on breakfast TV about the value of higher education, graduate debt and whether degrees really lead to well-paid jobs.

Next, I saw the campaign billboards by Universities Australia attempting to show the general public why universities matter and highlighting their importance to Australian society – from educating “classroom-ready teachers” to discovering “better treatments and cures”.

As fantastic as it was to see the Australian universities group reaching out to everyday people in this way to foster appreciation for their members’ work, I couldn’t help but feel a strange mixture of comfort and despair seeing the same battle for hearts and minds needing to be fought so publicly over 10,000 miles away on the other side of the world.

Then, no sooner had I arrived back in the UK, I saw the news that the Australian government has set a new cap for international student enrolments through a national planning level set at 270,000 for the 2025 calendar year.

This will involve a top-down allocation of international student commencements to individual Australian universities, with those currently taking the largest proportion of overseas students receiving caps set at lower 2019 migration levels. This means it is only set to become harder for international applicants to obtain places at the country’s largest and most research-intensive universities.

While my passion and advocacy for the health of the UK higher education sector ought to see this as a potential boon for universities in my part of the world – particularly following the UK’s new education secretary’s warm words for international students earlier this month – the ‘global citizen’ in me can’t help but worry if a similar fate could well be in store for UK universities soon too.

After all, one of the first things you learn while developing a career in UK higher education policy is that if you want to know what is likely to occur next for British universities then you only need look to what is happening over in Australia first!

Although the Australian universities system was modelled on the older and much larger UK system, over recent years it has actually been the UK, and especially England, following Australia in terms of policy thinking about student finance models and regulation.

In both systems, international education plays a vital role, both in terms of enhancing the vibrancy and choice of the educational experience and cross-subsidising essential research and development activities. It is also in this policy space that both countries have yo-yoed between welcoming international students and introducing measures to put them off.

Over recent years it has actually been the UK, and especially England, following Australia in terms of policy

For example, while Australia closed its doors to the outside world during the global Covid-19 pandemic, UK universities were relatively quick to show international students that their campuses were safe and open in accordance with UK government guidance.

Yet, as Australia’s borders reopened and international student admissions grew quickly at Australian universities, internal wranglings within the last UK government about whether international student numbers should be curbed, together with changes to international student visa conditions, have clearly taken their toll on this year’s overseas intake at UK institutions.

With the latest news of caps from Australia and more positive messaging from the new UK government, the yo-yo has bounced once again in the UK’s favour. But, like laws of physics, recent policy history between the two nations shows us that what goes up will likely come down. So, for UK universities, it could only be a matter of time before the new Labour government follows its counterparts down under to ramp up the dial on inward migration.

Politically, Australia is two years ahead under its Labour administration (albeit with a shorter election cycle). It was only in November 2022 that the Albanese government said it “warmly welcomes all international students studying or planning to study with Australia”.

Politics moves fast. So, just because the mood music from the new UK Labour government is positive toward international students now does not mean that the narrative can’t and won’t change as domestic debates about migration develop apace.

That’s why, as I settle back for the new term in the UK and prepare to support London’s universities navigate the new political territory ahead, I can’t help but wonder if this summer’s holiday has given me an unnerving glimpse into the future that may await…