With the number of Canadian study permit applications processed by the IRCC dropping by 54% in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023, ApplyBoard has projected that the overall number will drop by 39% this year compared to 2023 in a new report. 

According to the report, the current trends signal that around 230,000 new study permits will be processed in the second half of 2024. 

This, coupled with the government’s study permit approval rates staying at 51%, could result in 231,000 new study permits being approved in 2024. 

“This projected approval count is roughly 47% lower than the 436,600 new study permits which were approved in 2023,” read the report by ApplyBoard. 

“In our 2025 look ahead, we project that the full-year study permit approval numbers will look a lot more like they did in 2018 and 2019, in the mid 200,000s,” said a statement by Meti Basiri, co-founder and CEO, ApplyBoard. 

Moreover, the projected drop is far more drastic than the prediction made by Canadian immigration minister, Marc Miller, while announcing a two-year cap on new study permits in January. 

“For 2024, the cap is expected to result in approximately 364,000 approved study permits, a decrease of 35% from 2023,” stated Miller during the announcement.

The report further highlighted that the average study permit approval rate dropped from 58% to 51% year on year, through the first six months of 2023 and 2024, which are lower than the government’s approval target of 60% in 2024. 

“While it’s possible the approval rate may improve in July–December 2024, to max out the full number of possible study permits, demand would have to rise as well,” read the report. 

“With an estimated 230,000 study permits projected to be processed in the last half of the year, even an approval rate of 100% would not be enough, given that only 114,000 study permits were approved in the first six months of 2024.”

Though the two year cap in Canada exempts K-12, masters and PhD students, new policies are leading to these programs also seeing a year on year dip. 

While in Q1 2024, applications decreased by 26% year on year for programs affected by the study permit caps, cap-exempt programs (master’s and PhD) also saw a dip of 21%.

ApplyBoard forecasts that, for 2024, they anticipate a 50% decline in permits for capped post-secondary programs, and a 24% reduction for programs exempt from the cap. 

Furthermore, Gabriel Miller, the president of Universities Canada, that represents nearly 100 Canadian universities, stated last week that international student enrolments could drop by at least 45% this fall.

The possible impact of the drop in study permits could also affect Canada economically, as recent government figures revealed that international students contributed $30.9 billion to Canada’s GDP in 2022. 

“International students contribute significantly to Canadian society, and this sharp decline will have a devastating impact on our post-secondary education sector, with potential long-term effects on the country’s GDP,” said Basiri. 

Some of Canada’s largest provinces, including Ontario and British Columbia, have also been affected by the recent changes. 

While 49% fewer post-secondary study permits for BC institutions were processed in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023, Ontario saw a 70% drop. 

As per the report, though provinces such as Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island saw their international student populations rise in 2023, a smaller influx is expected in 2024. 

“This suggests that student demand from applicants who might have previously applied to institutions in BC or Ontario did not entirely shift to other provinces, but instead likely shifted towards other destination countries entirely,” said the report. 

International students contribute significantly to Canadian society, and this sharp decline will have a devastating impact on our post-secondary education sector

Meti Basiri, ApplyBoard.

The number of international students choosing to study in Canada from key source countries has also seen a significant decline this year. 

Approvals of study permits for Indian students – a group that has historically been one of the largest contributors to Canada’s international student population – have been cut in half during the first half of the year.

The decline is even steeper for students from other countries, with study permit approvals falling by over 70% for Nigerian students, 65% for students from the Philippines, and 76% for students from Nepal.

With new savings requirements of more than CDN$20,000, elimination of post-study work eligibility for students enrolled in programs via private-public partnerships, and other restrictions on immigrants, international students are eyeing other destinations. 

Interest in Canada as a study destination appears to be waning, with global searches for “study in Canada” down nearly 20% compared to 2023, the report suggests. 

Despite fewer international students, countries like China and Ghana are seeing a minor growth in approved applications. 

While 6,750 study permits were approved for Chinese students in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023, 3,652 applications were okayed for Ghanaian students in the same period compared to 2,713 last year. 

In an interview with The Globe and Mail, IRCC spokesperson Jeffrey MacDonald stated that though early signs indicate that the cap is impacting study permit volumes, it’s still too early to fully assess its consequences. 

“Changes to the international student program have not yet been in effect through the busiest season for study permit processing and issuance (summer and early fall), it is too early to fully assess data and analyze the impact of the intake cap on study permit applications,” he told the Canadian newspaper. 

He further added that the number of study permit applications for 2025 will be reviewed by the end of 2024 in consultation with provinces, universities and colleges.