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Enroly, the platform that automates CAS, visa and arrival processes for over a third of the UK sector, has released data to The PIE News covering the 2024 September intake.
The data represents the performance of 59 institutions, comprising both universities and pathway providers, and covers 338,669 unique students.
CAS issuance is down 25.9% year on year across partner institutions. However, this is a significant improvement compared to the stark 51.55% decline previously reported in May 2024.
The former government’s “rapid review” of the Graduate Route visa alongside other restrictive policies, significantly lowered confidence in the UK as a study destination during the first half of the year.
However, the decision to protect post-study work rights, a change in government and disruptive policies in Australia and Canada have since triggered a late recovery for the UK sector.
Declines in CAS issuance have been driven by significant regional slowdowns in interest including West Africa (down 58.22%), which continues to be decimated as a source market by the devaluation of the Nigerian currency.
Unconditional acceptances from key source markets China (down 20.03%) and India (down 36.86%) are also crucially down against 2023.
| Region | CAS Issuance (YoY variance) |
| West Africa | –58.22% |
| East Asia | –19.84% |
| South Asia | –29.7% |
| Southeast Asia | –2.16% |
In contrast, East Africa stood out as an area of growth, with CAS issuance increasing by 27.87% in October 2024.
Kenya showed impressive growth with a 43% rise in CAS issuance, continuing its upward trajectory from the January 2024 intake, where CAS issuance had already grown by 32.6%.
| Source country | CAS Issuance (YoY variance) |
| Nigeria | -60.11% |
| India | -36.86% |
| Bangladesh | -31.73% |
| China | -20.03% |
| Pakistan | -24.49% |
The data also suggests that London institutions may have been insulated against the decline, showing a stronger performance than the overall sector average, with a 18.97% decline in the number of CAS issued, compared to Scotland (down 53.22%) and Wales (down 50.81%), which fared much worse.
However these statistics will be skewed by the proportion of university partners that use Enroly from these regions.
The share of successful applications in the data supported by an agent declined 67.84% year on year, while the share of direct applications grew (32.16%). Just three mega-agents supported a whopping 17.09% of students who had a CAS issued, while seven other agents accounted for a further 9.91%.
Visa refusal rates across all nationalities remained low, averaging 1.7%, with consistent trends across both agent and direct recruitment channels.
However, reports of visa delays for applicants from markets like Pakistan could signal poorer conversion from CAS issuance to enrolment than this data suggests.
Jeffrey Williams, CEO and co-founder of Enroly, said: “While numbers are down compared to the exceptional highs of 2023, this September intake likely reflects the new baseline for the sector.
“Universities, agents, and service providers have worked tirelessly, and getting to these numbers has been a true collaborative effort by all stakeholders in what has not been an easy year.”
While numbers are down compared to the exceptional highs of 2023, this September intake likely reflects the new baseline for the sector
Jeffrey Williams, Enroly
Attention will now turn to monitoring the January 2025 intake, with early Enroly data showing signs of growth.
Deposit payments have slightly increased by 3.27% compared to this time last year, likely driven by deferred students who failed to arrive in the UK for their autumn course start date.
“Itʼs encouraging to see promising signs for January 2025, giving us all hope for continued progress in the months ahead,ˮ said Williams.
Watch an exclusive live PIE webinar on Friday 25 October, 10am BST as we unpack this data with representatives from Enroly, the University of East Anglia and Durham University. Register your free place here.
