UK net migration falls 20% as impact of dependant rule takes effect

Newly released data from the Office for National Statistics shows an estimated net migration to the UK of 728,000 for the year ending June 2024, marking a 20% drop from 906,000 in June 2023.

The decrease is partly attributed to a decline in students bringing dependents, according to ONS director of population statistics Mary Gregory.

In May 2023, in a bid to reduce net migration, the previous Conservative government announced a rule banning most international students from bringing dependants with them while they study. This rule, which does not apply to students on research-based postgraduate programs or those sponsored by the government, came into effect on January 1 2024.

“Since 2021, long-term international migration to the UK has been at unprecedented levels. This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine, the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system and pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic,” said Gregory.

“In the 12 months to June 2024 we have seen a fall in immigration, driven by declining numbers of dependants on study-related visas from outside the EU,” she continued.

However, ONS notes that as most courses start in the autumn, student arrivals in the first six months of year tend to be relatively low.

“The impacts of this policy change are more likely to be reflected in data from July 2024 onwards,” the ONS suggested.

Commenting on the overall net migration figures, prime minister Keir Starmer said: “As the ONS sets out, nearly one million people came to Britain in the year ending June 2023. That is four times the migration levels compared with 2019.”

In a press conference on November 28, Starmer announced that government will be publishing a whitepaper imminently which sets out a plan to reduce immigration, with the Migration Advisory Committee already conducting a review.

Nearly one million people came to Britain in the year ending June 2023. That is four times the migration levels compared with 2019.
_{Keir Starmer, UK prime minister}

In the same week, the Home Office released its quarterly immigration statistics which signalled some 392,969 visas were issued to international students between the months October 2023 and September 2024 – a figure that is down 19% compared to the previous year, but almost 50% higher than pre-pandemic.

According to the data, the number of visas granted to dependents fell to 46,961 – a 69% drop compared with the year before, though the figure is almost three times higher than in 2019.

In the first 9 months following the new rules on students bringing dependants – January to September 2024 – the number of sponsored study dependant visas granted fell by 84% compared to the same period in 2023, from 114,293 to 17,978.

“The restrictions may also have partly impacted the number of main applicant visas granted, which decreased by 16% over the same period. Policy changes are one of a number of factors that may have impacted visa application volumes,” the Home Office statement read.

_{Source: Home Office immigration system statistics, year ending September 2024}

A spokesperson for the Russell Group commented: “The latest figures confirm that changes to immigration rules introduced by the previous government, alongside other global factors, have driven international student numbers down significantly.

“Campuses across the UK will miss out on the enriching diversity of experiences and perspectives that international students bring. The economic impact will also be substantial, risking fewer opportunities for home students, less spending in local communities and more pressure on R&D budgets – and this dataset may not yet show the full extent of the impact.

“With international students contributing £37.4bn to the UK economy every year, reversing this downward trend will be crucial to the government’s growth mission.
The positive tone taken by the education secretary and other senior ministers towards international students is very welcome and has already been well received in key overseas markets.

“Paired with a new, ambitious international strategy for higher education and consistent visa policies, this can make a big difference in signalling that the UK remains a welcoming destination for students.”