US intled in “good trouble” despite declining market share

International students make up just over 5% of entire higher education enrolment in the US. If that number was to double, there would still be ample capacity, said NAFSA‘s Aw.

The conversations happening in the US contrast to those happening in other destinations such as Canada and Australia, where governments are introducing or proposing caps to limit the number of international students following on from periods of exponential growth.

“We’re having a different conversation, which is ‘we have capacity’ and it is in the national interest of the US to leverage that capacity,” said Aw while speaking at the ICEF Monitor event in London last week, where she took the opportunity to outline the challenges and priorities that lie ahead for US international recruitment.

“If you’re going to make things happen, you’re going to have to do things differently. You have to have a mindshift.”

The US sector is already shaking things up in a number of ways – one being the US for Success Coalition, which launched in November 2023.

The Coalition, which focuses on international student success in the US, now counts 40 members including education organisations, thinktanks, advocates and other stakeholders.

“We understand our government is going to continue to function more or less the way they are,” explained Aw.

“But what we can do as a sector is come together… as a multi-sector coalition, and in many ways drive the US international education agenda in partnership with US government and other stakeholders, and that has to include the business sector.”

One of many benefits of the Coalition is data being brought to the table by members and leveraging these insights is helping to build the case for international education.

Opportunities not only lie in the capacity across the country’s 4,000+ plus institutions, but in the quality and diversity of the US education system and employment pathways.

However, “this is not a time to rejoice,” cautioned Aw, who remains mindful that no market is exempt to sudden shifts and unexpected policy changes.

“Looking at what’s happening in Canada, the UK or Australia… If anything, it teaches us it can happen anywhere.”

From facing a “demographic cliff edge” to high levels of visa denials, the US is not without its own challenges.

Looking at what’s happening in Canada, the UK or Australia… If anything, it teaches us it can happen anywhere
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But when it comes to the US having a declining market share as countries outside of the Big Four gain popularity among prospective international students, Aw is not concerned and chooses to look at the bigger picture, stating “students should have choices”.

The fact that the US and the other three ‘big’ markets should continue to dominate is a “very old framework”, said Aw, and one that she would like to move away from as many parts of the world experience “massive youthquakes”.

“We keep talking about the four major markets. I would argue that is so passé. In fact, we should be talking about 20 major countries because the world has changed.”