It only took a few hours after the polls closed for the Associated Press to declare Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 presidential election earlier this month.

However, while the strength of his victory was quickly apparent, the impact of a second Trump presidency on the education sector is far less clear – particularly when recruiting international students.

The stakes for international education

Presidential elections are rarely about clearly defined policy propositions but rather act as referendums on the incumbent administration or political party, and this one was no exception. Although we can expect some clarity in the coming months, college administrators are left trying to guess what comes next.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. American universities and colleges recruited over 1.05 million international students in the 2022/23 academic year, representing 5.6% of the US college student population.

These students make a significant financial contribution, not only to the universities themselves – which benefit from the typically higher tuition fees they charge – but to the broader US economy. NAFSA, a non-profit representing international educators, calculates their economic impact at $40bn, with overseas students supporting roughly 370,000 jobs.

The role of immigration policies

Then, there are downstream economic impacts, too. Like many other developed economies, the US provides several immigration pathways for graduates to continue their careers in the US.

According to a 2024 study, 41% of US international students remain in the country long term. Although these programs are less generous than those in other developed nations, particularly Canada and the UK, they represent an essential supply of skilled labour to US businesses. This is especially true for the tech sector, where students in STEM programs can obtain a 36-month work permit after graduation through the OPT (Optional Practical Training) pathway.

In the waning months of the last Trump administration, officials suggested sweeping changes to the OPT program, particularly in light of worsening Sino-US relations and fears of potential industrial espionage.

Early cabinet nominations suggest the incoming Trump administration will be equally hawkish on China, with Marco Rubio set to assume the role of Secretary of State. This administration could impose restrictions on the issuance of student visas and the availability of post-graduate work permits, which play a role in drawing international students to the US.

Potential changes in student visa programs

One should also acknowledge the role immigration played in Trump’s victory. A key component of the Trump campaign’s messaging centered on immigration – particularly clandestine migration on the US southern border. Trump has promised to resume construction on the border wall and conduct an unprecedented deportation program that will seek to remove “as many as 20 million” undocumented immigrants from the US.

Regarding legal migration – particularly for graduates of US universities – Trump’s stance is somewhat more conciliatory. In June, while speaking on a podcast with several major Silicon Valley investors, he proposed granting green cards to all graduates of US colleges.

“[If] you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges too,” he said. The Trump campaign later clarified to Reuters that this would only come after “the most aggressive vetting process in US history” and only for “the most skilled graduates who can make significant contributions to America”.

Regardless, if Trump follows through on this proposal, the US will have one of the most attractive and generous post-graduate immigration policies in the world. It would surpass that of Canada, which offers graduates of two-year programs a three-year work permit, providing an opportunity – albeit not guaranteed – for permanent residence.

Perception and Its impact on enrolment

Arguably, the biggest impact on US international student numbers might not come from any specific policy decision but rather from how the Trump administration, and the US more broadly, is viewed in the coming years.

After the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the number of EU students applying for UK universities plateaued, eliminating years of post-financial crisis growth overnight. This occurred even though the UK did not officially leave the EU until January 2020, and the previous immigration regime, which allowed for free movement for all EU nationals, continued to exist until the end of that year.

It’s conceivable that the Trump Administration may leave the existing student visa and post-graduate work programs unscathed, yet international students may still choose to study elsewhere. This would place the burden on colleges to demonstrate that the US and its campuses remain welcoming and safe environments.

Proactive measures for American higher education

This could be accomplished through clear and unambiguous commitments to diversity and deeper collaboration with foreign institutions. The US education system enjoys global renown, and institutions will need to use the strength of their brands to weather the coming four years.

Separately, it’s also conceivable that the Trump administration may follow through on its proposal to grant green cards – a necessary step to citizenship – to foreign graduates of US universities. This would be a valuable recruiting tool for the American higher education sector.

It’s unclear which of these two paths awaits us. What is clear, however, is the importance of international students to US universities and the US economy, both in terms of the money they bring and the talent they contribute.

Amid this uncertainty, now is the time for American higher education to be proactive.